CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-08-30T22:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-08-30T22:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26678/-1
CME Note: Partial halo seen in SOHO with clearer fronts more to the South and the NE. Its source is possibly the eruption of a long filament from NE to SW and centered around N15W15 seen in AIA 193/304 starting 2023-08-30T20:30Z, with post-eruptive arcades and dimming extending towards SE and encompassing the disk center. No clear CME arrival observed. However, there may be a weak arrival combined with the high speed stream observed at L1 on 2023-09-01 or 02. The flux rope is possibly seen in the solar wind magnetic field components, accompanied by a drop in temperature, around 2023-09-02T18:00Z. Overall this is a weak arrival signature.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-02T19:16Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 729.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 441.447 Acceleration: 1.28481 Duration in seconds: 248667.73 Duration in days: 2.8780987 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.28 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 760.9 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 02/09/2023 Time: 19:16 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 32.05 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-09-01T11:13Z
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